In the early 90's, dramatic overbuilding and an economic slow-down created a buyer's market.
Today, office and industrial real estate trends are approaching equilibrium, says Dan O'Connor, managing editor of CB Richard Ellis' National Real Estate Index.
"I don't expect to see a dramatic loosening of the market, unless we have an economic slowdown," O'Connor says. "The real estate market remains tight, but it is going forward and users will have more choices."
As anyone who has negotiated for property knows, a "good deal" is in the eye of the beholder. High vacancy rates are a headache for property managers but a steal for business tenants, opening up new opportunities for negotiation.
Expansion Management Magazine's new Corporate Real Estate issue offers readers a comprehensive look at hard real estate data businesses need to make site selection decisions.
Information has been selected from CB Richard Ellis and Grubb & Ellis, two of the world's largest corporate real estate firms. Although these two companies were primary information sources, there are many other knowledgeable real estate entities equipped to help with site selection needs.
Information in this section examines the markets for office space -- both suburban and downtown -- as well as R&D facilities, warehousing and general industrial space.
California Property is the Hottest National index also says downtown office space is best performing category.
Created in 1985, the National Real Estate Index reports property rental and purchase prices in nearly 60 metropolitan markets. Generally speaking, the markets represented have populations of a million or above. The markets also represent a diversified geographic base that may or may not reach the one million population threshold.
A recap of first quarter commercial real estate market trends shows that downtown office space was the best performing property category in the first three months of 1998. This was due chiefly to a 3 percent increase in effective rents in Class A properties in the nation's downtown market, according to CB Richard Ellis, which publishes the report.
Other properties experiencing first-quarter gains included suburban office buildings and warehouse facilities.
Regionally, California, the West, the Southeast and the Northeast experienced the most robust gains overall.
However, for the 12 months ending in the first quarter, California led the country by a wide margin. In fact, with the exception of warehouse facilities, the Golden State experienced double-digit price appreciation in every Class A property category reported.
The index publishes nearly 250 real estate reports each year, including Metro Market Facts, a 60-page single market report published each quarter for 50 major markets.
Readers who are interested in global real estate can also obtain the new publication, Global Market Rents, which reports office occupancy costs and rental rate trends in more than 130 markets worldwide.
NATIONAL REAL ESTATE INDEX
Downtown Office*
Downtown Office*
Suburban Office*
Suburban Office*
Warehouse
Warehouse
Metro Area
Price SF
Rent SF
Price SF
Rent SF
Price SF
Rent SF
NATIONAL
$169.95
$27.91
$143.02
$23.59
$38.89
$5.21
WEST COAST
REGION
$172.18
$30.17
$172.95
$26.08
$47.31
$5.91
Los Angeles
$160.56
$25.33
$185.00
$23.63
$45.79
$5.90
Oakland-East Bay
$150.08
$26.01
$175.52
$25.12
$42.97
$5.30
Orange County
$175.43
$27.55
$136.35
$25.79
$50.40
$5.46
Riverside-San Bernardino
$115.48
$22.20
$84.84
$16.22
$36.00
$4.74
Sacramento
$172.92
$27.00
$125.17
$22.67
$33.29
$4.33
San Diego
$127.14
$21.75
$150.00
$22.22
$48.28
$6.13
San Francisco
$204.27
$42.13
$210.84
$37.26
$61.01
$8.12
San Jose
$166.02
$32.40
$202.12
$33.60
$58.34
$7.54
Honolulu
$171.19
$25.26
$138.65
$24.20
$64.45
$7.92
WEST
REGION
$143.55
$23.17
$139.60
$24.23
$38.10
$5.10
Denver
$114.22
$19.00
$146.58
$24.50
$30.71
$4.67
Las Vegas
$158.02
$26.57
$127.51
$23.10
$37.29
$5.05
Portland
$135.76
$23.38
$135.55
$22.93
$40.83
$5.50
Salt Lake City
$120.57
$21.36
$105.61
$18.61
$32.61
$4.37
Seattle
$179.75
$27.12
$143.63
$26.35
$45.00
$5.56
SOUTHWEST
REGION
$109.74
$20.15
$121.47
$21.37
$34.35
$4.53
Albuquerque
$109.74
$18.60
$89.72
$14.56
$31.14
$4.54
Austin
$123.64
$24.34
$128.03
$22.28
$38.03
$5.64
Dallas-Ft. Worth
$133.42
$20.40
$144.07
$25.57
$35.74
$4.73
El Paso
$78.83
$13.40
$92.51
$14.75
$27.57
$4.03
Houston
$104.93
$19.75
$99.30
$18.28
$31.98
$4.44
Oklahoma City
$66.56
$12.43
$85.93
$16.20
$24.79
$3.57
Phoenix
$132.25
$22.50
$130.29
$19.84
$40.82
$4.48
San Antonio
$98.88
$18.36
$106.86
$17.44
$30.08
$4.14
Tulsa
$76.91
$13.81
$86.91
$14.44
$25.08
$3.59
SOUTHEAST
REGION
$118.30
$19.76
$125.04
$20.92
$31.96
$4.00
Atlanta
$142.74
$24.42
$146.38
$23.67
$35.70
$4.13
Birmingham
$103.18
$18.33
$106.24
$17.49
$26.84
$3.38
Charlotte
$145.58
$22.58
$122.61
$18.06
$30.99
$3.80
Greensboro/
Winston-Salem
$100.92
$18.19
$101.54
$18.18
$28.16
$3.94
Greenville-Spartanburg
$109.90
$18.15
$100.00
$16.50
$29.02
$3.99
Memphis
$100.38
$17.83
$104.11
$17.99
$30.06
$3.57
Nashville
$121.57
$19.61
$130.36
$24.65
$30.78
$3.90
New Orleans
$109.47
$17.06
$96.24
$19.35
$26.84
$3.66
Norfolk
$92.40
$17.33
$103.54
$18.99
$33.24
$4.75
Raleigh-Durham
$100.85
$16.80
$117.83
$19.40
$33.72
$4.04
FLORIDA
REGION
$125.52
$22.16
$124.35
$21.77
$38.52
$5.64
Ft. Lauderdale
$140.90
$27.33
$139.41
$23.38
$44.75
$6.70
Jacksonville
$88.60
$17.17
$115.94
$19.69
$31.43
$4.06
Miami
$166.03
$26.75
$128.52
$22.50
$45.64
$6.83
Orlando
$133.75
$23.32
$116.70
$20.62
$30.28
$4.48
Tampa-St. Petersburg
$97.88
$18.50
$117.40
$20.80
$31.78
$4.66
West Palm Beach
$129.66
$21.88
$131.72
$23.85
$37.45
$5.28
MIDWEST
REGION
$156.09
$25.39
$137.61
$22.68
$36.31
$5.09
Chicago
$213.90
$33.39
$176.32
$24.35
$42.98
$5.48
Cincinnati
$114.93
$21.08
$115.54
$18.11
$32.59
$3.86
Cleveland
$133.06
$22.14
$117.98
$20.49
$29.77
$4.68
Columbus
$150.60
$22.01
$112.70
$19.90
$31.75
$4.06
Detroit
$123.53
$20.78
$121.36
$22.39
$36.09
$5.84
Indianapolis
$112.73
$17.08
$116.33
$19.87
$30.49
$4.45
Kansas City
$122.27
$20.00
$123.94
$22.47
$32.12
$4.56
Milwaukee
$123.96
$20.25
$101.64
$19.28
$34.25
$4.60
Minneapolis-St. Paul
$157.76
$28.92
$131.07
$23.60
$39.20
$6.42
St. Louis
$129.66
$20.50
$133.16
$25.75
$32.86
$4.30
NORTHEAST
REGION
$218.53
$34.68
$150.78
$25.10
$41.53
$5.74
Baltimore
$134.17
$23.35
$121.65
$20.85
$36.75
$4.32
Boston
$259.34
$39.85
$151.56
$32.95
$42.53
$6.03
Central New Jersey
$149.35
$23.70
$138.82
$22.93
$43.88
$6.04
Hartford
$106.34
$23.38
$94.74
$18.01
$30.94
$4.56
Manhattan Downtown
$213.55
$32.83
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
Manhattan Midtown
$293.97
$48.25
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
Nassau-Suffolk
$140.37
$25.16
$136.28
$22.67
$45.44
$5.82
Newark-Northern New Jersey
$153.19
$25.67
$179.57
$24.38
$46.39
$6.61
Philadelphia
$147.89
$24.85
$141.10
$23.00
$37.61
$5.16
Pittsburgh
$138.95
$25.50
$101.95
$20.15
$33.75
$4.78
Washington, D.C.
$254.07
$37.17
$161.05
$26.36
$41.20
$5.99
*Reported values reflect Class A properties
Source: CB Richard Ellis National Real Estate Index Market Monitor, first quarter 1998
CB Richard Ellis National Real Estate Index Market Monitor
Based in San Francisco, the National Real Estate Index (phone: 800-992-7257) provides comprehensive real estate data and analysis every
quarter based on a database of 90,000 commercial and multi-family properties. It is published by CB Richard Ellis' newly-created Global Research and Consulting Division. CB Richard Ellis has more than 9,000 employees and 200 offices worldwide. Visit the corporate Web site at www.cbrichardellis.com.
Demand for Space Driving up Industrial Rentals
Strong demand and shrinking vacancy rates drove rental rates for standard industrial space up a robust 3 percent during the second half of 1997, according to the Grubb & Ellis Industrial Market Trends report.
Rents are highest in the West Coast and Pacific Northwest regions, where standard industrial and R&D rents rose by 5 percent and 3.8 percent, respectively, in the second half of 1997. Rates were influenced by booming, technology-driven economies from Seattle, Wash., down the coast to San Jose, Calif., according to Grubb & Ellis.
Rates are lowest in the Mountain/Southwest and Southeast regions, where abundant land and lenient building regulations encourage new supply.
In Dallas and Atlanta -- the number one and two markets for space completions in 1997 -- rental rates for standard industrial space average $3.66 and $3.62 respectively, more than 20 percent under the U.S. average.
INDUSTRIAL RENTAL
RATES FOR
STANDARD SPACE
Metro
Rental Rate
1
Fresno, CA
$2.40
2
Sacramento, CA
$3.00
3
Reno, NV
$3.06
4
Raleigh-Durham, NC
$3.47
5
Houston, TX
$3.48
6
Philadelphia, PA
$3.53
7
Charlotte, NC
$3.60
7
Riverside-San Bernardino, CA
$3.60
9
Atlanta, GA
$3.62
10
Dallas, TX
$3.66
11
Omaha, NE
$3.75
12
Portland, OR
$3.84
13
San Antonio, TX
$3.86
14
Chicago, IL
$3.93
15
Albuquerque, NM
$3.95
16
Des Moines, IA
$3.95
17
Kansas City, MO
$4.00
18
Tampa, FL
$4.03
19
Cleveland, OH
$4.10
20
Bakersfield, CA
$4.20
21
Denver, CO
$4.21
22
Pittsburgh, PA
$4.41
23
Salt Lake City, UT
$4.43
24
Northern & Central NJ
$4.55
25
Seattle, WA
$4.56
26
Los Angeles, CA
$4.68
26
Oakland-East Bay, CA
$4.68
28
Detroit, MI
$4.75
29
Tucson, AZ
$4.80
30
Boston, MA
$4.85
31
Long Island, NY
$5.00
32
Phoenix, AZ
$5.40
33
St. Louis, MO
$5.50
34
San Diego, CA
$6.12
35
Orange County, CA
$6.24
36
Washington, D.C.
$6.87
37
San Jose, CA
$8.16
INDUSTRIAL RENTAL RATES FOR R&D SPACE
1
Albuquerque, NM
$5.55
2
Omaha, NE
$5.75
3
Houston, TX
$5.76
4
Tampa, FL
$6.17
5
San Antonio, TX
$6.30
6
Tucson, AZ
$6.60
7
Denver, CO
$6.62
8
Philadelphia, PA
$7.05
9
Dallas, TX
$7.14
10
Sacramento, CA
$7.20
11
Portland, OR
$7.56
12
Raleigh-Durham, NC
$7.58
13
Chicago, IL
$7.62
14
Des Moines, IA
$7.66
15
Los Angeles, CA
$7.68
16
Atlanta, GA
$7.82
17
Cleveland, OH
$7.95
18
Long Island, NY
$8.00
19
Charlotte, NC
$8.09
20
Detroit, MI
$8.28
21
Northern & Central NJ
$8.33
22
Kansas City, MO
$8.50
23
Orange County, CA
$8.64
23
San Diego, CA
$8.64
25
Boston, MA
$8.75
26
Phoenix, AZ
$8.80
27
Seattle, WA
$8.90
28
Washington, D.C.
$8.98
29
St. Louis, MO
$9.25
30
Oakland-East Bay, CA
$10.08
31
Pittsburgh, PA
$10.15
32
San Francisco Peninsula, CA
$14.40
33
San Jose, CA
$16.92
Office, Industrial Markets Tighten
The nation's office and industrial vacancy rates continue to drop, according to Grubb & Ellis, a national an international real estate firm.
In its Office Market Trends report, the company forecasts that demand for office will continue to outpace additional building for the remainder of 1998. It warns, however, that strong demand for office space should not tempt lenders and developers to let their guards down or relax their standards.
Additionally, the company feels that if construction levels continue at a rapid pace, and if the economy cools off, then overbuilding could become problematic.
According to the Industrial Market Trends report, the amount of space delivered to markets increased by a steep 42 percent in 1997. Even so, vacancy rates continued to shrink.
Grubb & Ellis believes growth in new space hit a peak in 1997, and that completions should taper off slightly in 1998. Additionally, the company forecasts that the market's performance this year should mirror the performance of the general economy: stable, moderate growth.
SUBURBAN OFFICE VACANCY RATE
Metro Area
Vacancy Rate
1
Riverside-San Bernardino, CA
23.90%
2
North & Central NJ
15.10%
3
Long Island, NY
14.60%
4
Los Angeles, CA
14.60%
County, NY
14.10%
6
Pittsburgh, PA
13.80%
7
Fresno, CA
12.00%
8
Miami, FL
11.80%
9
Orange County, CA
11.80%
10
Fairfield County, CT
11.40%
11
Dallas, TX
11.00%
12
Houston, TX
10.90%
13
Philadelphia, PA
10.80%
14
Cleveland, OH
10.60%
15
Tampa Bay, FL
10.10%
16
Sacramento, CA
10.00%
17
Albuquerque, NM
9.60%
18
Chicago, IL
9.00%
18
San Diego, CA
9.00%
20
Atlanta, GA
8.60%
21
Denver, CO
8.60%
22
Phoenix, AZ
8.20%
23
San Antonio, TX
8.00%
24
Charlotte, NC
7.90%
25
Reno, NV
7.80%
26
Kansas City, MO-KS
7.70%
26
Oakland-East Bay, CA
7.70%
28
Des Moines, IA
7.00%
29
Bakersfield, CA
6.90%
St. Paul, MN
6.70%
31
Detroit, MI
6.40%
32
Tucson, AZ
6.20%
33
Washington, D.C.
5.90%
34
Boston, MA
5.80%
35
Seattle, WA
5.80%
36
Salt Lake City, UT
5.70%
37
San Francisco, CA
5.50%
38
Portland, OR
5.10%
39
Raleigh-Durham, NC
4.50%
40
South Bend, IN
4.50%
41
St. Louis, MO
4.50%
Silicone Valley, CA
4.20%
43
Greenville, SC
4.00%
44
Omaha, NE
3.30%
DOWNTOWN OFFICE VACANCY RATES
Metro Area
Vacancy Rate
1
Dallas, TX
34.00%
2
Westchester County, NY
28.40%
3
Detroit, MI
20.90%
4
Atlanta, GA
19.70%
5
Albuquerque, NM
19.40%
6
North & Central NJ
18.60%
7
Cleveland, OH
17.30%
8
San Diego, CA
17.00%
9
New York (Downtown)
16.70%
10
St. Louis, MO
16.70%
11
Tucson, AZ
16.70%
12
Los Angeles, CA
16.40%
13
Greenville, SC
16.00%
14
Pittsburgh, PA
15.70%
15
Des Moines, IA
15.60%
16
Tampa Bay, FL
15.00%
17
Fresno, CA
14.90%
18
Miami, FL
14.40%
19
Raleigh-Durham, NC
13.80%
20
Reno, NV
13.80%
21
Philadelphia, PA
13.60%
22
Houston, TX
13.50%
23
Fairfield County, CT
13.20%
24
San Antonio, TX
13.00%
25
Kansas City, MO-KS
12.50%
26
Oakland-East Bay, CA
11.70%
27
South Bend, IN
10.80%
28
Phoenix, AZ
10.40%
29
Chicago, IL
9.70%
30
Washington, D.C.
9.40%
31
Bakersfield, CA
9.30%
32
New York (Midtown)
9.30%
33
Denver, CO
9.10%
34
Sacramento, CA
8.20%
35
Salt Lake City, UT
7.50%
36
Omaha, NE
7.30%
37
Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN
6.50%
38
Orange County, CA
6.20%
39
Portland, OR
4.90%
40
Seattle, WA
4.60%
41
Charlotte, NC
4.40%
42
Boston, MA
3.50%
43
San Jose-Silicone Valley, CA
3.10%
44
San Francisco, CA
2.00%
First quarter 1998, for all classes of office space.
Source: Grubb & Ellis
INDUSTRIAL
VACANCY RATES
Metro Area
Vacancy Rate
1
Pittsburgh, PA
15.00%
2
Charlotte, NC
14.20%
3
Philadelphia, PA
13.10%
4
Cleveland, OH
12.00%
5
Tucson, AZ
11.80%
6
Phoenix, AZ
11.40%
7
Raleigh-Durham, NC
10.80%
8
Riverside-San Bernardino, CA
9.60%
9
Reno, NV
9.50%
10
San Antonio, TX
9.40%
10
San Diego, CA
9.40%
12
Washington, D.C.
9.30%
13
Boston, MA
9.10%
13
Chicago, IL
9.10%
15
Orange County, CA
8.90%
16
Portland, OR
8.80%
17
Tampa, FL
8.30%
18
Dallas, TX
7.90%
19
Omaha, NE
7.80%
20
Sacramento, CA
7.50%
21
Atlanta, GA
7.00%
22
Long Island, NY
7.00%
23
Bakersfield, CA
6.80%
24
Los Angeles, CA
6.20%
25
Denver, CO
6.00%
26
Northern & Central NJ
6.00%
27
Salt Lake City, UT
5.90%
28
Albuquerque, NM
5.80%
28
Fresno, CA
5.80%
30
Detroit, MI
5.30%
30
Oakland-East Bay, CA
5.30%
32
Houston, TX
5.20%
32
Seattle, WA
5.20%
34
Des Moines, IA
5.00%
35
Kansas City, MO
4.50%
36
St. Louis, MO
3.70%
37
San Jose, CA
3.20%
38
San Francisco Peninsula, CA
1.20%
Source: Grubb & Ellis, Fourth quarter 1997
Tornado Alley' Blows Away the Competition in Housing Costs
If you're searching for affordable housing to go along with your corporate move, you might want to consider Tornado Alley. Yes, that's right, the region where states like Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas are often the target of a tornado's fury.
The cities were identified in the 1998 study of executive housing costs by E&Y Kenneth Leventhal Real Estate Group.
Markets were ranked from the most to least expensive, based on "mid-management" housing requirements, which for this study are defined as amenitized four-bedroom single family homes and large, luxury apartments.
Key findings of the study included the disparities in housing market costs. To illustrate the range, the study found that housing takes 17 percent of median family income in Oklahoma City, Okla., compared to nearly 44 percent of the median family income in metropolitan New York.
The study also found that the West Coast still harbors the least affordable housing nationwide. However, not every area in the region takes a disproportionate percentage of family income. In the Sacramento and Riverside-San Bernardino areas, housing requires less than 24 percent of the median family income.
AFFORDABILITY OF U.S. EXECUTIVE HOUSING MARKETS
Ten Most Affordable Markets *
Cost of Single-Family
Rental
Composite
1998 Rank
Metro Market
1997 Rank
Home
Cost
Cost*
1
Oklahoma City
1
13.6
21.3
17.4
2
Richmond
3
15.5
20.0
17.8
3
Kansas City
4
16.4
20.5
18.4
4
Knoxville
20
17.5
19.7
18.6
5
Raleigh-Durham
7
16.7
21.2
18.9
6
Indianapolis
18
18.8
19.1
19.0
7
Tulsa
2
15.5
22.8
19.1
8
Houston
5
17.3
21.8
19.6
9
Charlotte
12
18.5
20.9
19.7
10
Dallas-Ft. Worth
8
17.8
21.7
19.7
Ten Least Affordable Markets *
Cost of Single-Family
Rental
Composite
1998 Rank
Metro Market
1997 Rank
Home
Cost
Cost*
75
New York
74
45.3
41.8
43.5
74
San Francisco
75
45.5
38.8
42.2
73
Los Angeles
73
38.7
35.7
37.2
72
Boston
70
38.4
35.3
36.9
71
Oakland-East Bay
69
34.5
33.2
33.8
70
Pittsburgh
67
31.8
34.4
33.1
69
El Paso
68
33.1
30.9
32.0
68
Miami
71
29.8
33.8
31.8
67
San Jose
66
29.9
31.4
30.7
66
Honolulu
72
27.7
33.0
30.3
Source: CB Richard Ellis
Ranking assesses 75 urban areas.
*All reported housing cost figures reflect a percentage of local market median family income.
The composite figure is a simple average of the single family home and rental components.
NOTE: Single family home costs are based on the cost of purchasing an ammenitized home, as reported in
Coldwell Banker's 1998 Home Price Comparison Index. Rental costs are based on lease rates for luxury rentals as compiled and reported by the CB Richard Ellis National Real Estate Index.