An interesting statistic about work is that, out
of more than 20,000 unique occupations, less than 300 account for almost all of the
jobs.
Look at those that begin with the letter "O." How many oak tanners or
oyster washers can you find out there in the workplace? Consider cashiers, registered
nurses, janitors, high school teachers, and truck drivers, however, and we're talking
10 million people.
It isn't much different with consultants.
There are two million people who make all of their living giving business advice.
Accounting, data processing and networking, human resources, and marketing are the
most familiar areas. Site selection, on the other hand, is one of the least common.
And within site selection, rarer still are three forecasting specialties: natural
risk, property valuation and spatial crime.
Natural Risk
The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is a basic source for where earthquakes,
floods, hurricanes and tornadoes have historically hit. But in the private sector,
risk forecasters are making a good business estimating the future odds of damage
from these natural hazards at any location in the country.
It's now possible to index the odds of twisters tracking, hurricanes hitting,
or ground motion hazard values (earthquakes) exceeding safe levels -- all within
areas as small as a zip code.
Insurance companies are big clients of natural risk forecasters. But the data
are important to site selection specialists, too. After all, a large chunk of damage
claims come from outside high-risk areas that FEMA can tell you about, and it helps
to know the odds.
Property Valuation
Learning the costs of commercial and industrial properties anywhere in the country
isn't difficult. There's the Internet, a rich source for some and a black hole for
others. National appraising services can tell you square foot rental and replacement
costs for a facility in your own backyard and for facilities like it elsewhere in
the country.
But what about future costs?
What will a property in, say, zip code 80206 be worth five years from now, assuming
no recession or global war? The method used, called a repeat sales index, statistically
combines data on all local properties that have sold more than once over a specified
time period. Other data like building permits, personal income and jobs are added.
The result is "trended forward" to produce cost figures.
Spatial crime
Though lawbreaking may be dropping nationwide, it's risen in certain locations
and can be a deciding factor in choosing a site.
Psychologists try to predict when and why typical crooks will choose one target
rather than another. Given good arrest data, geographers can pin down property crime
patterns by zip code. Want to know what crimes have been committed on the Pacific
Coast Highway near Newport Beach? Enter the Orange County, Calif., Sheriff Department's
Web site and click on the detailed map.
Given all this expertise, some firms make a business by assessing a site's relative
vulnerability to crime and what kinds of redesign and remodeling will be needed to
make a given facility safer. Using your site's street address as the center, other
firms can give you mapped patterns of lawbreaking.
What is new are forecasters who attempt to predict any site's vulnerability to
crime by "trending forward" local demographic and economic data with past
arrest data. Are indications normal or excellent that a given area will be getting
safer or more dangerous over the next five years?
Like forecasting the weather or stock prices, predicting when a valley may be
flooded, a branch office burglarized, or by how much a home will appreciate in value
is nothing more than educated guess work.
But in competitive situations like site location, recall that the best definition
of information is "any difference that makes a difference."
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